War in Ukraine: Day 70
by Ashwin Dhanabalan, Rishma Banerjee and Emmanuel Royan

War on the ground
Zelensky's address
On 04 May, Ukraine's president Volodymyr Zelenskyy in his daily speech addressed the people of Denmark virtually on their 77 anniversary of liberation from the Nazis. He mentioned that he hoped for peace and called on the people to remember and mourn the 220 children killed in the Ukrainian war by Russians. 

Kyiv
On 04 May, spokesperson for Ukraine's state border service Andriy Demchenko stated that Kyiv would be prepared if Belarus joined Russian forces. The statement came following large-scale military drills performed by Belarus' armed forces. However, the defense ministry of Belarus said the exercise presented no threat to its neighbors or the European countries.

On the same day, Ukraine's intelligence service claimed that Russia is planning a military parade in the besieged city of Mariupol to celebrate its 'Victory Day' held annually on 09 May. The city's central streets are being cleaned swiftly of rubble, bodies, and explosive munitions. The intelligence described the parade as a "large-scale propaganda campaign" by Russia to sway the remaining 120,000 residents in the city, which is now mainly under Russian control.

Donbas
On 04 May, the UK's defense intelligence reported that Russia had positioned 22 battalion groups near Izyum, an attempt to advance into the northern part of Donbas. Russia is likely to capture the cities of Kramatorsk and Severodonetsk. This would reinforce their military control of the north-eastern Donbas and serve as a frontier for their operations to block Ukrainian forces in the region.

On the same day, Ukraine's army general staff (AGS) stated that Russian forces were pressing hard along the Siviersky Donets River line, but Ukrainian defenses had withstood the onslaught and suffered heavy losses. Other battles for control of river bridges were still underway.

Also, on 04 May, Mariupol's mayor Vadym Boychenko reported that a new operation to evacuate residents from the city, and neighboring areas had begun. A convoy of buses carrying people left for Zaporizhzhia in the morning; however, it did not appear to contain any of the trapped civilians in the Azovstal steel plant. More than 30 youngsters are awaiting evacuation from the factory. He further stated that fierce combat is in progress and communication with Ukrainian fighters inside has been lost.

A new analysis estimates 600 killed in the Mariupol theater bombing
On 04 May, a new investigation led by Associated Press reported that over 600 civilians taking shelter in the Mariupol theater were killed by the Russsian bombing on 16 March. The testimonies of over two dozen survivors, rescuers, and individuals who were near the theater, have made it evident that the assault killed far more people than the previous estimate of 300. Survivors claimed that 1,000 people were inside the theater at the time of the attack, but only about 200 people were seen escaping. The investigation also denounced Russian accusations that the theater was demolished by Ukrainian forces or that it was used as a military base. As no soldiers were seen by the witnesses in the area and everyone was aware that the theater was being used for shelter and aid. 

The Moscow view: 
Claims by Russia
Russia discusses the war in Ukraine with Israel 
On 04 May, Russia's foreign ministry reacted to Israel's diplomat Yair Lapid, as he demanded that foreign minister Sergei Lavrov should apologise for his remarks against Jerusalem. Lavrov mentioned that Russia's special military operation in Kyiv was towards the denazification of Ukraine. Furthermore, Lavrov accused Israeli of supporting the "neo-Nazi regime" in Kyiv.

Concerns about Russia's possible debt default stalled 
On 04 May, foreign creditors mentioned that they would accept Russia's international debt payment obligations. This would allow Russia to avoid a technical default. However, Russia paid off its two sovereign bonds in USD, but it still has to be approved by the US and the UK. This comes as the West had imposed sanctions on Russia that froze its USD 300 billion gold and foreign currency reserves. 

Kremlin dismisses claims that Putin would declare war on Ukraine
On 04 May, Kremlin's spokesperson Dmitry Peskov clarified that Russia's president Vladimir Putin would not wage war against Ukraine on 09 May. He added: "There is no chance of that. It is nonsense." 09 May is Russia's most important national event as it serves as a remembrance of the Soviets defeating Nazi Germany and is commemorated as the "Victory Day."

Russia targets NATO convoys of arms shipments to Ukraine
On 04 May, Russia's defence minister Sergei Shoigu warned that it would hit shipments of NATO weapons to Ukraine. The defence ministry stated that it had fired two Kalibr cruise missiles at Ukrainian targets from a submarine in the Black Sea. He further mentioned that next the military would consider NATO transports carrying weapons as military targets. 

Concerning the fighters in the Azovstal plant
On 04 May, Shoigu mentioned that the Ukrainian fighters in the Azovstal plant in Mariupol were being kept under a secure blockade. This comes as Putin ordered that the fighters were to be hermetically sealed off. 

Russia bans 63 Japanese officials 
On 04 May, in response to Japan's involvement in unacceptable rhetoric against Moscow, Russia banned 63 Japanese officials and the prime minister. The sanctions bar the entities from entering Russia indefinitely.

Ukrainian forces shell an oil depot in Makeyevka
On 04 May, Russia stated that one person was killed due to shelling by Ukrainian forces at the oil depot in Makeyevka. Russia's defence authority stated: "Take care of yourself and your family; try not to leave the house unnecessarily."  

The West view
Responses from the US and Europe
The UK
UK's military intelligence reported that Russia had deployed 22 battalion tactical groups, in Izium, to the east of Ukraine. They said that this was to help their advance along the northern axis of the Donbas region.

Germany
On 04 May, Germany's chancellor, Olaf Scholz, requested Ukraine's help to untangle a diplomatic impasse that has been caused by Germany's president's supportive relations with Russia. Scholz said that it was a diplomatic problem that he was asked to visit the country while the president was not. This awkward twist in relations comes at a time when Ukraine tremendously needs Germany's support.

Belarus
On 04 May, it was reported that Belarus had suddenly started their large-scale drills to test its readiness for combat. As per Belarus's defence ministry, the exercise will include 'significant numbers of military vehicles,' but should not be any concern for their neighbours or the larger European community, as it was part of a routine drill.

Sweden
The ruling party of Sweden, the Social Democrats, said that they would be holding another meeting on 15 May, to decide whether the party will switch their stance and support the application to join NATO. The Social Democrats, who have been the biggest party in every election for the last 100 years, are the major obstacle to Sweden's NATO application.

Netherlands
On 04 May, the Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte said that the Netherlands would be assessing if they can join the UK, Germany and Belgium in supplying more weapons to Ukraine. He said that they would continue to support Ukraine's fight for democracy. He also conducted a phone call with Zelenskyy and praised how he handled the battle against Russia.

Bulgaria
On 04 May, Bulgaria's parliament, voted to allow the repairs of heavy military equipment from Ukraine in exchange of Ukraine's grains and electricity. This proposal won over the proposal to send direct military aid to Ukraine. Bulgaria is one of the few countries in the Black Sea region not to send arms to Ukraine, directly.

The EU
Patriarch Kiril of the Russian Orthodox Church has been added to a draft blacklist, that included many Russian officers and businessmen accused of supporting the war in Ukraine. The European Commission has also suggested freezing the Patriarch's assets. The sanction, which will also include a travel ban, has to be approved by the EU member states.

On 04 May, the European Commission deliberated on another round of sanctions against Russia, which now await the approval by the ambassadors of the EU member states, later this week. As of the recent meeting, the Commission has proposed a complete ban on buying Russian crude oil within six months and refined oil, by the end of 2022. Since Hungary and Slovakia are heavily dependent on Russian oil, they will be allowed access to it till the end of 2023. The Commission also reported that they want to remove Sherbank and two other Russian banks from the international SWIFT transaction and messaging system. On top of that, the Commission also suggested that they ban the three big Russian state-owned TV broadcasters, Rossiya RTR/RTR Planeta, Rossiya 24, and TV Centre International from EU airwaves.

The EU Council president, Charles Michel also said that the EU is considering providing additional military support to Moldova. This would be on top of the cyber and logistic support that will be given to Moldova. While he did not go into the specific of the support to be provided, he said that it was crucial to avoid any escalation in the region.

Other developments
In an interview, Pope Francis recently said that he has asked for a meeting with Moscow to discuss the war, but has not received any affirmative reply. Francis, who made an unprecedented visit to the Russian embassy when the war started, said that his message to Russia's top diplomat has still not been delivered. He said: "I fear that Putin cannot, and does not, want to have this meeting at this time. But how can you not stop so much brutality?"

The global fallout
International implications of the Ukraine war
Mexico
On 04 May, the Mexican president, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said that they would not be imposing sanctions on Russia. He instead called for dialogue and said that they would prefer to remain neutral in the face of this crisis.

Brazil
On 04 May, the presidential frontrunner Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva alleged that the Ukrainian president Zelenskyy bears equal responsibility for the war with Vladimir Putin. In an interview with Time magazine, the former president said it was even the Western leaders who should be promoting closed-door negotiations instead of encouraging Zelenskyy and his war efforts.

Japan
On 04 May, Japan's prime minister Fumio Kishida said that Russia is to blame for the situation of their bilateral ties. Kishida and 62 other Japanese citizens have been banned by Moscow from entering the country; this is something that Japan has found unacceptable. The ban comes after Japan decided to enforce the sanctions on Russian political and business leaders. When asked about countermeasures, Kishida said that he was scheduled to meet the UK's prime minister on 05 May and that Japan will be cooperating with the international community and respond to Russia accordingly.

The UN
The Global Network Against Food Crises, an agency set up by the UN and the EU released their annual report. It said that conflicts in various parts of the world and the fluctuating weather and economy had already increased the number of people facing a food shortage to 193 million. As per the report, the crisis in Ukraine will only increase this number further. Global food security will definitely be hampered by the fact that both Ukraine and Russia are major food producing countries, and will exacerbate the crisis in countries like Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Haiti, Somalia, South Sudan, Syria and Yemen.

It was also reported that another convoy of buses, carrying evacuees from Mariupol left for Zaporizhzhia. This evacuation has been coordinated by the UN and the International Committee of the Red Cross. 

References:
"Address by the President of Ukraine to the Danish people on the anniversary of the liberation of Denmark from the Nazis," Presiddent of Ukraine, 04 May 2022
"Ukraine says it is 'ready' if Belarus joins Russian war effort," Reuters, 04 May 2022
"British Defense Intelligence Update – 04 May, 2022," Kyiv Post, 04 May 2022
Stefan Korshak, "RF attacks on Siviersky Donets River line stalled, more evidence of UAF counterattacks," Kyiv Post, 04 May 2022
Ukraine, UN and Red Cross renew efforts to evacuate civilians from Mariupol,' Reuters, 04 May 2022
Lori Hinnat, Mstylav Chernov and Vasilisa Stepanenko, "AP evidence points to 600 dead in Mariupol theater airstrike," Associated Press, 04 May 2022
"Russia holds airborne rehearsal of Victory Day Parade over Moscow," TASS, 04 May 2022 
"Press review: Russia, Israel in spat over Ukraine and will looming US downturn affect gold," TASS, 04 May 2022 
"Kremlin dismisses speculation Putin to declare war on Ukraine on 09 May," Reuters, 04 May 2022 
"Russia says it fires cruise missiles from submarine, warns again on NATO arms shipments," Reuters, 04 May 2022 
"Russia warns NATO: transport carrying weapons in Ukraine is a 'target', "Reuters, 04 May 2022 
"Russia bars entry to 63 Japanese, including PM," Reuters, 04 May 2022 
"Russia has said it will implement a ceasefire for three days from Thursday to allow more civilian evacuations from the Azovstal plant in the besieged city of Mariupol," The Guardian Live, 04 May 2022
"Britain says Russia deploys 22 battalion tactical groups near Izium," Reuters, 04 May 2022
"Germany's Scholz says Ukraine must help mend ties after president visit debacle," Reuters, 04 May 2022
"Belarus begins snap combat readiness drills," Reuters, 04 May 2022
"Sweden's ruling Social Democrats might speed up party's NATO decision," Reuters, 04 May 2022
"Netherlands assessing whether to supply more heavy weapons to Ukraine - PM," Reuters, 04 May 2022
"Bulgaria approves repairs to Ukrainian military equipment, not military aid," Reuters, 04 May 2022
"EU targets Russian Patriarch Kirill in new round of proposed sanctions - diplomat," Reuters, 04 May 2022
Francesco Guarascio and John Chalmers, "EU's toughest Russia sanctions yet snag on worries over oil ban," Reuters, 04 May 2022
Jon Henley, "EU to unveil Russian oil sanctions as evacuees recall Azovstal horror," The Guardian, 04 May 2022
"EU says considering more military support to Moldova," Reuters, 04 May 2022
"Mexico's President not planning sanctions on Russia for war with Ukraine," Reuters, 04 May 2022
"Brazil's ex-president Lula claims Zelenskiy equally to blame for war," The Guardian, 04 May 2022
"Japan PM: Russia responsible over bilateral ties after entry ban," Reuters, 04 May 2022
Maytaal Angel, "Ukraine war set to worsen severe hunger worldwide - UN report," Reuters, 04 May 2022
"Ukraine, UN and Red Cross renew efforts to evacuate civilians from Mariupol," Reuters, 04 May 2022

IN BRIEF
By Sai Pranav

FRANCE
Left join together to win against Macron in parliamentary elections
On 04 May, the left decided to unite and stand against president Emmanuel Macron in parliamentary elections in June. The Socialists, Greens, Communists, and the new far-left France Unbowed party of Jean-Luc Mélenchon joined together and reached a draft agreement after all-night negotiation. According to the left, this moment would be a historical one if all the parties unite and form a coalition. Instead of running against each other in the parliamentary election, the left-leaning parties would try to come under one banner to increase their odds of gaining a majority. The Socialists are yet to sign the deal. Jean-Luc Mélenchon would become the leader of the left as he was the most successful in the first round of the presidential election with 21.95 per cent of votes. It is a dream of his to block Macron's reforms in the parliament with the majority. (Hugh Schofield, “France elections: Left forms coalition to fight Macron,” BBC News, 04 May 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
France pulls out of the P-75I project of Indian Navy
On 04 May, France’s Naval Group withdrew from the P-75I project of Indian Navy before the visit of prime minister Narendra Modi to France to meet the re-elected president Emmanuel Macron. The project's goal was to build six conventional submarines domestically for the Indian Navy. The request for proposal (RFP) was related to the air-independent propulsion (AIP) system, which allows a conventional submarine to stay underwater for a longer duration and travel faster. RFPs were issued to the shortlisted two Indian companies, private Larsen and Toubro, and state-run Mazagaon Docks Limited. It also ties up with five foreign companies. Failure to forward the requests by the two companies has led to the withdrawal of the Navy Group. (“France’s Naval Group pulls out of India’s P-75I submarine project ahead of PM Modi’s visit,” The Hindu, 04 May 2022)

Modi returns to India after Europe visit
On 05 May, prime minister Narendra Modi returned to India after concluding his Europe visit. During the tour, he held a series of bilateral meetings with the leaders of Norway, Finland, Iceland, Sweden, and Denmark. The discussion took place in the areas of trade, energy, and green technology. Modi had extensive talks with the French president Emmanuel Macron during the end of his tour. He had also attended the India-Nordic summit in Copenhagen, Denmark where they discussed on the Ukraine issue, post-pandemic economic recovery, climate change, renewable energy, and the evolving global security scenario. (“PM Modi returns home after concluding three-nation European tour,” The Hindu, 05 May 2022)

Sweden is appalled by the decision of Iran to execute Djalali
On 05 May, Sweden’s foreign minister Ann Linde, condemned the death penalty issued by an Iranian court to Ahmadreza Djalali, a Swedish-Iranian doctor. He was charged with espionage and would be put to death by 21 May for the same. Sweden and the EU condemned the death sentence and demanded the immediate release of Djalali. He said that he was brutally tortured and subjected to inhumane treatment and Iran officials have been forcing him to confess to something that he didn't do with a threat to harm his family in Sweden. Iranian Human Rights group accused the country's officials of threatening the execution of Djalali as a form of retaliation against Sweden which held the war crime trials of the former judiciary of Iran, Hamid Nouri. Nouri was convicted of international war crimes and human rights violations that took place in 1988. (“Ahmadreza Djalali: Sweden alarmed by Iran's reported plan to execute doctor,”BBC News, 05 May 2022)